In the first round of Brazil’s presidential election, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro was in the lead with 49.58% of the vote when about 65% had been counted. President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva had 42.25%. Since a candidate needed more than 50% to win outright in the first round, Datafolha (다타폴랴) projected that the race would go to a runoff. However, these figures and projections were made before the count was complete.
Background and context
The election was a contest between 45-year-old Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, and 80-year-old President Lula. Flávio is seeking to return his father’s right-wing political movement to power, while Lula is seeking a fourth term.
The campaign focused on corruption scandals, economic instability, and allegations of U.S. interference. Early in the count, votes from southern states with strong support for Bolsonaro were tallied more quickly. It is therefore important to keep in mind that the early vote shares may have reflected the preferences of areas where counting had progressed first.
What this news means
If the leading candidate does not reach a majority in the first round, the contest can continue to a runoff. In that case, these figures are not the final result determining the winner, but rather an interim snapshot showing the likelihood of a runoff and where the two candidates currently stand. Datafolha’s runoff projection and the broadly similar levels of support for the candidates in polls suggest that the contest could continue into the next vote.
For example, if neither candidate exceeds 50% after more votes are counted, voters and candidates alike may view the runoff as an important next stage. However, this report alone does not establish the result after the count is complete or who won the runoff.
What is confirmed and what remains unknown
Confirmed facts
- When about 65% of the vote had been counted, Flávio Bolsonaro had 49.58% and Lula had 42.25%.
- The report said that a candidate needed more than 50% to win outright in the first round.
- Datafolha projected a runoff.
- Polls showed the two candidates with broadly similar levels of support in the October 25 runoff.
- Early in the count, votes from southern states with strong support for Bolsonaro were tallied more quickly.
What remains unknown
- The final first-round results after all votes were counted are not provided.
- This report does not say who won the runoff.
What readers should check
- It is worth checking how the final vote shares announced after the count was complete differed from the interim figures.
- This report alone cannot establish whether a runoff was actually held or what the result was, so readers should check subsequent results separately.
