Russia’s Defense Ministry said it intercepted about 900 Ukrainian drones on Tuesday night over several Russian regions, occupied Crimea and the Sea of Azov. The source says two people were killed in the attack, while adding that reports of a fire at a major fuel depot in Moscow Region have not been confirmed. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he had received the latest information indicating that a large-scale Russian air attack was imminent and that Ukraine was preparing countermeasures.

Background and context

Ukraine has attacked Russian territory with domestically developed long-range drones and increasingly used missiles. The source says targets as far east as the Urals and Siberia have also been attacked. The “about 900” figure cited by Russia’s Defense Ministry refers to the number of drones intercepted; it does not indicate the total number launched or the extent of damage caused by the attack.

Russian forces have been waging a full-scale war for more than four and a half years since launching their invasion of Ukraine. The source explains that Russia’s air superiority has made airstrikes on Ukrainian civilian areas routine. Therefore, Ukraine’s long-range attacks on Russian territory and a possible large-scale Russian air attack against Ukraine cannot be assumed to be responses of the same kind or scale. However, as aerial attacks by both sides continue, it is notable that the risks to civilians and facilities are not confined to just one side.

What this means

Long-range attacks on Russian territory show that the effects of the war are not limited to areas near the front line. In particular, if the report of a fire at the fuel depot is true, damage to a critical facility could become a matter of concern, but the information provided here does not confirm whether a fire occurred or how extensive it was. The interception figure is also Russia’s Defense Ministry’s account; the source provides no independently confirmed picture of the overall attack or the damage it caused.

Ukraine’s preparations do not mean that a large-scale Russian air attack has been confirmed. Rather, President Zelenskyy said he had received information about one and that Ukraine was preparing a response. Since the timing and targets of any attack have not been made public, it is not possible to know where or when the actual danger might be concentrated. For example, residents of a Ukrainian region should not conclude from this report alone that their specific region is a target, but should distinguish between subsequent alerts and confirmed reports of damage.

What is confirmed and what remains unknown

Confirmed

  • Russia’s Defense Ministry said it intercepted about 900 Ukrainian drones overnight over several regions, occupied Crimea and the Sea of Azov.
  • The source says two people were killed in the attack.
  • A fire at a fuel depot in Moscow Region has been reported by the media but has not been confirmed.
  • President Zelenskyy said on social media that he had received the latest information about Russia preparing a large-scale attack and that Ukraine was preparing countermeasures.

What remains unknown

  • It has not been confirmed whether a fire actually broke out at the fuel depot in Moscow Region, or how extensive the fire and damage were.
  • The identities of the two people killed and the circumstances of their deaths have not been provided.
  • It is not known whether Ukraine has officially confirmed this drone attack targeting Russian territory.
  • The timing and targets of the large-scale air attack mentioned by President Zelenskyy have not been made public.

What readers should check

  • Keep separate the fact that “about 900 intercepted” is a figure given by Russia’s Defense Ministry and the fact that the depot fire is an unconfirmed report.
  • Follow subsequent reporting to see whether the identities of the dead, the circumstances of their deaths and the extent of damage at the fuel depot are confirmed.
  • The possibility of a large-scale Russian air attack was reported as a warning by Ukraine’s president. Check subsequent announcements about whether an attack occurs, as well as its timing and targets.