Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed that Russia had developed a new airstrike policy targeting civilian sites ahead of winter, and said Ukraine would step up attacks on Russian refineries. In an interview with Reuters, he also said Ukraine would not target civilians. The report alone does not confirm what operations Russia has actually decided on, or when and how Ukraine’s response might take place.

Background and context

Zelensky said Ukrainian intelligence had obtained a document related to a “new doctrine” that Russian President Vladimir Putin had allegedly ordered. According to Zelensky’s description, the document lists infrastructure and logistics facilities, cities and towns, roads, schools and hospitals as targets. This account is based on Zelensky’s description; the report did not provide the full document or independent confirmation of its contents.

Zelensky claimed the aim of the operation was to pressure residents into leaving Kyiv and other cities. He cited Putin’s desire to project strength as the backdrop to the policy shift, while Russian forces were being pushed back in key areas of the front and casualties were increasing. The article does not specify which front-line areas saw retreats or provide specific evidence to support the claim of rising casualties.

According to the article, the Kremlin was unable to respond to a request for comment on Saturday. Therefore, this report does not confirm Russia’s position or its response to the document Zelensky described.

What this news means

If, as Zelensky claimed, cities, schools, hospitals and roads are included among the targets, the danger could extend beyond battle zones to the facilities that support daily life and to urban residents. This analysis, however, depends on the accuracy of the document’s contents as he described them. There is no information that the document itself has been made public or independently verified.

Ukraine has said its response will target Russian refineries. This shows that the response plan to the alleged expansion of airstrikes is intertwined with the risk of attacks that could include civilian facilities. Zelensky said civilians would not be targeted, but did not specify when or how the attacks would take place, or which facilities would actually be targeted. It is therefore important to distinguish between the announced policy, actual operations and any resulting civilian casualties.

For example, residents of Kyiv or other cities cannot conclude from this statement alone that an attack on a particular area is imminent. But given that schools, hospitals and roads were mentioned, it is worth watching for further confirmation of the alleged new airstrike policy and reports about the risks it could pose to urban infrastructure.

What is confirmed and what remains unknown

What is confirmed

  • In an interview with Reuters, Zelensky made claims about Russia’s new airstrike policy and described Ukraine’s response plan.
  • He said Ukraine would step up attacks on Russian refineries but would not target civilians.
  • He claimed Ukrainian intelligence had obtained a document related to a new doctrine.
  • According to the article, the Kremlin was unable to respond to a request for comment on Saturday.

What remains unknown

  • What are the specific contents of the document Ukrainian intelligence allegedly obtained, and is it authentic?
  • Which key front-line areas saw the Russian military retreats Zelensky described?
  • When and how does Ukraine plan to step up attacks on refineries?
  • What is Russia’s position on the claims about a new airstrike policy and Ukraine’s response plan?

What readers should watch for

  • Distinguish between the report’s attribution of the “new doctrine” to Zelensky and the fact that the document’s authenticity has not been confirmed.
  • Ukraine’s announcement that it will step up attacks on refineries is a separate matter from confirmation of the timing and methods of actual attacks. Watch for follow-up reports specifying how the plan will be carried out.
  • It is also worth checking whether there is further confirmation that cities, schools, hospitals or roads have actually been targeted, and whether Russia offers its account.